The high growth trend of heavy truck exports in 2026 is expected to continue, and we are optimistic about the long-term opportunities for China's heavy truck exports to go global

The monthly export volume of heavy trucks in China has reached a new high. According to the General Administration of Customs, heavy truck exports in 2025 increased by 12.5% year-on-year to 371,000 vehicles. Demand for real estate and infrastructure such as highways is strong in Vietnam and other regions, while demand from mining investment is strong in Indonesia, Congo, Tanzania, and other regions. There is sustained growth potential for heavy truck demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We are optimistic about the long-term opportunities for China's heavy-duty trucks going global, and expect exports to grow 5-20% to 350,000-400,000 units by 2026. The strong will stay strong in overseas markets. We recommend China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951.SZ / 03808), the leading heavy-duty truck maker in overseas markets.

The main viewpoints of CICC are as follows:

Heavy truck exports are expected to increase significantly in 2025, and the momentum is expected to continue in 2026

According to the General Administration of Customs, heavy truck exports in 2025 increased by 12.5% year-on-year to 371,000 vehicles. By region, exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Central Asia reached 149,000/96,000/45,000/29,000/27,000 vehicles respectively, up +60%/+47%/+54%/+27%/+51% year-on-year, accounting for 40%/26%/12%/8%/7% of total exports. CICC believes demand for real estate and infrastructure such as highways is strong in Vietnam and other regions, demand from mining investment is strong in Indonesia, Congo, Tanzania, and other regions, and there is sustained growth potential for heavy truck demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We are optimistic about the long-term opportunities for China's heavy-duty trucks going global, and expect exports to grow 5-20% to 350,000-400,000 units by 2026.

Strong players in overseas markets will stay strong: consolidating the Asia-Africa base and expanding into Europe

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, exports of the heavy-duty truck industry in 2025 increased by 17% year-on-year to 341,000 vehicles. Among them, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile Group, FAW Jiefang, Foton, and Dongfeng exported 153,000/58,000/60,000/27,000/30,000 vehicles respectively, up 29%/-8%/+8%/+131%/+13% year-on-year, with market shares of 45%/17%/18%/8%/9% respectively. The company's official WeChat account shows that in January 2026, Sinotruk exported more than 16,000 heavy trucks, setting a new record.

CICC believes that Sinotruk has been deeply cultivating overseas markets for more than 20 years, and has built 37 KD assembly plants and more than 700 service outlets and spare parts centers in key regions such as Asia and Africa. With localized solutions that integrate pre-sales, in-sales, and after-sales support, it continues to consolidate its competitive advantages. Looking ahead, the Steyr factory in Austria announced in March that it would begin producing diesel and electric truck products for Sinotruk, mainly targeting the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. Sinotruk is actively expanding into the high-value, high-tech-barrier European market, opening up long-term headroom for overseas growth.

Valuation and Recommendation

We recommend China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951.SZ / 03808), the leading heavy-duty truck manufacturer in overseas markets. Given the strong growth in exports, we have raised the 2025/2026 profit forecasts for Sinotruk A-shares by 7.0%/7.8% to RMB 1.75 billion/2.01 billion, and introduce for the first time a 2027 profit forecast of RMB 2.22 billion. We maintain the 2026/2027 profit forecasts for Sinotruk H-shares unchanged and introduce for the first time a 2027 profit forecast of RMB 8.76 billion. The current A/H share prices of Sinotruk correspond to 13.5x/11.9x the 2026 P/E. Given the upward shift in the valuation center of the overseas catalyst sector, we have raised the target prices of Sinotruk A/H shares by 20.4%/75.3% to RMB 29.9 / HKD 47.7, corresponding to 17.5x/15.0x the 2026 P/E, implying upside potential of 29.4%/24.0% versus current levels.

Risk factors

Geopolitical conflicts could weigh on external demand, and the pace of trade policy could affect domestic demand.